vendredi 10 juillet 2015

Quels fondements de l'économie numérique ?


L'économie numérique, dénommée "iconomie",  présente clairement une rupture avec l'économie traditionnelle. C'est une nouvelle révolution industrielle.

Cette économie bouleversante a des caractéristiques originales, et l'on ne cesse de s'extasier ou de s'inquiéter de ces ruptures. On met en avant la multitude, le crowdsourcing, les big data, la mobicuité, les données personnelles, l'uberisation, la désintermédiation, l'économie de l'utilité, ...

De fait, ces termes et constats s'appliquent à des angles de vision sur une ou deux "faces" des transformations réalisées par les agents "iconomiques".



Au sens de ce site, et des concepts porteurs, toute transformation est systématiquement "multiface", et se caractérise au travers de ces différentes faces, comme constaté avec de nombreux exemples.



Axiomes de base de la Trame Business :


Rappelons ici les axiomes de base du modèle "Trame Business" :

Axiome 1 : Toute transformation, vue de façon systémique, associe plusieurs cycles et parcours, qui sont autant de "faces" de la transformation.

Axiome 2 : Ces faces, aux rythmes typiques, sont des caractéristiques invariantes de la transformation.

Ces axiomes de base sont constatés dans les transformations classiques, dans le service comme dans l'industrie, bref dans toute l'économie traditionnelle. Mais on les vérifie aussi dans les transformations sociales, la biologie, l'écologie, ... cette axiomatique fournit ainsi un prisme d'analyse à portée générale.

L'iconomie, qui innove certes sur les fins et les moyens, mobilise aussi cette mécanique multifaces universelle.

On peut ainsi analyser les fondements de l'iconomie.


La production de services iconomiques



Intéressons nous à la production du service rendu par un agent iconomique.

Le fait historique majeur est que la fonction de production est à coût marginal quasiment nul.

Cette loi n'a jamais existé dans l'histoire économique, et elle a des conséquences profondes sur le "modèle" des entreprises du secteur, et sur le développement de l'iconomie.

De plus, le transport de services, d'informations, la connexion en tout temps et à toute chose inerte ou vivante, se réalise à coût marginal nul. Le moindre composant iconomique est ainsi mondialement accessible.
  • dès lors la concurrence frontale est exacerbée sur les prix, la gratuité s'impose aux opérateurs qui trouvent leurs sources de revenu ailleurs (publicité, autres faces : voir ci-après),
  • la mise en réseau qui découle de cette ubiquité gratuite, et de la possibilité de connexion de tous, ouvre une boîte de pandore de communication et d'échange qui devient consubstantielle à tout service iconomique,
  • la concurrence sur le produit, est monopolistique, dédiée au service : de par la résonance au travers des réseaux sociaux,  les barrières à l'entrée se créent progressivement, éliminant les petits opérateurs qui n'atteignent pas une masse attractive suffisante. La composante de communication et d'échange balkanise le terrain iconomique en autant d'archipels de services ciblant des situations d'usage typiques. "L'externalité de réseau" s'applique ainsi aux plus grands acteurs comme les GAFA, mais aussi à des roitelets de services mondiaux spécialistes de ces situations d'usage.
Cette "face", celle qui apporte le service, demeure clé, mais d'autres faces, quasi muettes dans l'économie traditionnelle, entrent dans la danse, enflent la concurrence. Le succès ou la survie , dépend de ce jeu multi-faces.

Les modèles "multifaces"


Les économistes se sont intéressés, dans l'économie traditionnelle, aux modèles bifaces, par exemple ceux des cartes bancaires, qui se développent entre 2 types d'acteurs aux intérêts spécifiques. Ainsi le succès d'un service de ce type tient-il tant aux utilisateurs clients des cartes, qu'aux commerçants acceptant les cartes.

Dans l'économie traditionnelle, les économistes constatent un glissement du produit vers le service (pas de produit sans service).

Maintenant, ces tendances se prolongent, du fait de la nature multiface et communicante constitutive de l'iconomie :
  • pas de service sans communication (sous toutes formes envisageables du CRM aux réseaux sociaux, et avec tout media),
  • pas de modèle monoface, puisque les transformations tendent naturellement à être multipartenaires.
C'est ainsi qu'apparaissent des modèles typiques de l'iconomie, associant utilsateurs en sitution potentiellement synergique (blablacar), ou utilisateurs et producteurs diffus (uber), modèles ouvrant de nouvelles utilités, et parfois "casseurs" de rentes de l'économie traditionnelle.

Aussi typiques sont les modèles freemium et premium, permettant de trouver une source de revenu auprès d'utilisateurs payant, en les privilégiant par des informations captées dans la masse des utilisateurs gratuits. De plus la facturation, de ce type de service, est devenue une rente typique des GAFA, dégageant un revenu mondial, nativement candidat à toutes formes d'optimisations fiscales.

Le raisonnement isolé, polarisé traditionnellement sur un territoire figé, et sur une seule face, ne peut expliquer la transformation productive réalisée par ces modèles "iconomiques", construits sur un schéma similaire, multiface et apatride.

En phase de croissance de ces marchés, les acteurs iconomiques cherchent non seulement à envahir leur "océan bleu" pour y devenir l'acteur incontournable, mais aussi à se ménager des portes d'accès à de nouveaux marchés potentiels.

Et quels nouveaux usages trouver à l'information accumulée ? C'est en réalité une "face d'avenir" présente dans la pensée de tout entrepreneur de l'iconomie.


L'information porte d'accès à la diversification


Les débats sur la valeur de l'information s'enflent alors sans fin. Le rebond sur l'information est dans tous les esprits. Mais, on sait bien qu'une valeur n’apparaît que s'il y a échange, transaction. La valeur est donc par nature incertaine, et sa comptabilisation, arbitraire.

Ainsi une information individuelle, sans grand intérêt, pourra-t-elle devenir conséquente par évolution imprévue, ou simplement par l'accumulation, et l'atteinte rapide d'un seuil de signification statistique. Par exemple les données de santé sont au centre d'enjeux individuels et macro-économiques majeurs. Elles sont collectées par une multitude d'acteurs  de prévoyance, d'opérateurs de soins, voire par les GAFA.

L'information est ainsi une porte sur l'avenir, et sur des extensions iconomiques.

Le contexte est celui d'un basculement de la logique économique, orientée production de produits et de services, vers une logique orientée situations, événements et intimité.

La dynamique des données, au travers de l'Open Data, de l'économie des API, des Data Lake, mais aussi des "Puits de données" défendus sur le présent site, ... est en marche.

Les modèle de la Trame Business, nativement construit autour des événements du monde réel, est adapté à la représentation de ce far-west, en particulier pour anticiper et aider à la navigation vers ces paradis iconomiques.


La fragilité et les garanties de l'engagement


Nous avons vu la généricité et la stabilité des modèles de l'iconomie, mais la guerre de mouvement engagée n'est pas finie.

Les plus beaux succès peuvent un jour se déliter et disparaître sous les coups d'un concurrent innovant. En effet, les utilisateurs, avec la mobicuité, sont habitués à comparer et sont potentiellement "infidèles". Les rentes, de règle dans l'iconomie, ne sont plus assises sur un avantage local, une proximité physique incontournable.

La parade à ce risque peut venir de la captivité créée par l'engagement utilisateur. En effet, la transformation réalisée comprend une part utilisateur, coûteuse pour lui à maintenir, et dotée d'un poids affectif confortant l'engagement. Le site incite son utilisateur à gérer son profil, à constituer une clé de voûte d'autosatisfaction ... Bref, l'utilisateur focalise ses efforts sur un seul site, et s'y engage affectivement (événements personnels, amis, images, ...).


L'innovation et le "pouvoir" d'infrastructure



Cette parade par l'engagement suffit-elle ? D'autres propositions pourraient apparaître plus efficaces et séduisantes sur le même créneau, sur les mêmes situations... Innover en permanence devient nécessité absolue.

L'innovation est consubstantielle de l'iconomie. Dans l'économie traditionnelle (mécanique, pharmaceutique, spatiale, transport, énergie), nouveau produit signifiait souvent nouveaux processus, nouvelle usine, investissements lourds, délais en années. L'innovation se projetait aux plans mondiaux, financiers, pluriannuels.

L'iconomie va bien plus vite. De l'idée à la réalisation en quelques mois.

Un autre fait historique majeur entre en ligne de compte : l'émergence de nouvelles infrastructures, autorisant une agilité technique jusqu'à présent inconnue.

Les infrastructures IT ont en effet muté profondément, avec le "Cloud" et les nouvelles plates-formes.

Ces visions du cycle d'innovation, des cycles d'infrastructure, complètent ainsi le tour de vue des cycles fondateurs de l'iconomie.

On ne dispose pas encore du recul suffisant , mais le "pouvoir d'infrastructure" acquis par les industriels de l'infrastructure, comme Amazon avec AWS, est probablement un fait historique majeur, une révolution dans la révolution, dont il est encore difficile de percevoir toutes les implications.

Les bases d'un extraordinaire développement iconomique, à l'échelle mondiale, sont ainsi posées. Elles bousculent les raisonnements traditionnels, nationaux et sectoriels.






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